By Fisher Investments Editorial Staff, 12/16/2013
In a little more than eight days, Santa will zip around the world at speeds defying space and time, delivering presents to the world’s boys and girls. According to market lore, he’s also supposed to put some nice gains in investors’ stockings—the Santa Claus Rally. Yet investors are mixed on what to expect from Santa this year. Some fret the mid-month pullback means Santa won’t deliver. Others still believe in the so-called Christmas miracle. In our view, it’s impossible to say whether Santa will deem investors naughty or nice—short-term market moves are impossible to predict. But one thing we do know: Whether stocks have a good December or not doesn’t much matter for long-term investors—longer-term trends matter far more, and stocks look set to do well over the foreseeable future.
The Santa Claus Rally is a lot like Santa—fake. It’s true December has the S&P 500’s second-highest average monthly return since 1926, and some believe it’s because Christmas cheer makes markets skyrocket from Christmas to New Year’s, give or take a couple days. One recent analysis finds the Dow has risen 79% over the last five days of December, averaging a 1.2% gain, with stocks up 10 of the last 12 Decembers. Santa, sprinkling good tidings on the portfolios of investors worldwide! Except it’s really just five days of returns from a poorly constructed index (the Dow) and only 12 years of history. An interesting observation with no predictive power—rather like all seasonal myths.
The myths don’t stop with Santa. With a quick Google search, you’ll find all sorts. Followers adhering to all of them may have a very odd journey indeed. Next month, we’ll experience the so-called January Effect—where January’s returns will supposedly foretell the year’s course. No discernable pattern really exists, except that stocks rise in about 70% of years since 1926, but many await the signal, and if you followed it to the letter, you’d likely begin the year out of stocks, then buy in February if stocks rose. Then, in three months, you’d sell in May and go away. When you buy back in then is anyone’s guess. Some say September, others October and still others November—after all, September and October, some say, are financial hurricane season—the season of crashes. Still others suggest navigating the high holidays—sell on Rosh Hashanah, buy on Yom Kippur. Finally, in Asia some believe the Indian holiday Diwali—in November—is bullish. That brings us back to the Santa Claus rally. Tiring! And following these patterns likely gives investors no advantage—we see plenty of good Mays and Septembers and bad Decembers. The only thing you’re guaranteed to accumulate by following seasonal adages is trading costs.
For most equity investors with long-term goals and objectives, one month’s performance shouldn’t much matter. That’s true whether you’re sure markets will bring you tidings of great joy this month or you don’t expect a rally with all the bells and whistles in light of recent volatility. Longer-term trends matter much more. Regardless of how December goes, the future looks good. US firms are in great shape—balance sheets are flush with cash, and earnings, revenues and capex are on the rise, which all augur well for continued growth. Most Leading Economic Indexes are rising, suggesting global growth continues—and could pick up. The UK recovery is heating up, the eurozone continues improving, and Emerging Markets should gain steam as yield curve spreads continue widening. Politically, the landscape is calm, with gridlock in the world’s freest markets, limiting legislative risk. And sentiment is still guarded—positive developments continue catching folks off guard.
Seasonal myths are simply oversimplifications of a handful of past returns—past performance doesn’t dictate future returns. Forward-looking fundamentals do, and fundamentals today suggest stocks should rise over the foreseeable future regardless of whether Santa brings investors toys and treats or lumps of coal.
One Time A Guy Gave A Homeless Man A Computer, And The Recipient Did Exactly What The Giver Expected
With the failure of the Broadband Technology program most recently dumped at the Urban Research Outreach/Engagement Center in north Minneapolis, it would seem that I have become timely and relevant in my original assessment the program did not meet the needs of the people who needed it. The video below proves my argument. ~ Don Allen
“If I’d have heard about what this guy was planning to do before it all played out, I might have thought he was unrealistic or maybe even condescending. But after watching the video, I realized that there’s a much bigger thing at play here: We need to remember that every human being is unique and full of potential. We don’t know other people’s stories.”
Posted on Upworthy.com
Michael Coffle, Contributing editor – OurBlackNews.com December 17, 2013 06:34
Minneapolis, Minn. – The Minneapolis branch of the NAACP is celebrating a new beginning with the election of several new officers who will set forth to build capacity and make a difference for the Minneapolis branch of the NAACP.
On Friday, December 13, by an overwhelming margin, the pastor of New Salem Missionary Baptist church, Rev. Jerry McAfee was elected as president of the Minneapolis branch of the NAACP with a solid vote of the majority of members in attendance. Local rapper Nick Mastermind Muhammad challenged Rev. McAfee for the position but fell short with those in attendance not feeling confident about the CEO of Titan Administration Records ability to transcend cultures and professional business acumen. Shelly Riley, a resident of south Minneapolis said, “Maybe Mr. Muhammad might fit better in the youth division of the NAACP. He could play a valuable role there. Minneapolis needs a president with a foundation and Rev. Mac is that person.”
Also elected to the executive committee, as Vice President was former Minneapolis policewoman Ms. Lisa Clemons. IBNN’s Don Allen was elected as second Vice President with three other candidates vying for the spot. Allen tells us in a candid interview, “Nobody thought I was going to win. I care about black people in Minnesota. The current road we are on will kill us. The lack of economic development, poor housing, educational challenges and people speaking for people of color who don’t represent ‘people of color’ is over during my watch. Its time to change the dynamics and I’m ready to take action in Minnesota on behalf of the Minneapolis NAACP. It will no longer be about a political party and supporting hen-pecked issues, it will be about making a good life for people of color in Minneapolis.”
Business owner and mega producer Tonia Johnson was elected as treasurer of the Minneapolis branch of the NAACP. The Minneapolis branch also elected a secretary and assistant secretary on Friday night.
The NAACP, founded in 1909, is the nation’s oldest and largest civil rights organization. From the ballot box to the classroom, the thousands of dedicated workers, organizers, leaders and members who make up the NAACP continues to fight for social justice for all Americans.
The NAACP has many issues it works on including, Economic Opportunity, Climate Justice Initiative, Education, Health Programs, Civic Engagement, Justice, Media Diversity and much more.
By Carlos Peralta, Guest Contributor – IBNN NEWS December 11, 2013 8:30 P.M.
American news media is suffering from an identity crisis. It is becoming increasingly entertainment driven and flustered with clashing styles of journalism and agenda settings geared toward mass popular culture. Instead of being straightforward and clear, it has become hard to tell what is actually news or not.
“Newsworthiness” today is dictated by popularity to garnish attention and fundamentally generate profits.
It is difficult to find a singular trusted news source, and one that can consistently be relied upon to deliver what is conceptually important news to everybody, regardless of who they are.
This is why you should look no further than BBC News.
BBC is the world’s largest and oldest national broadcasting corporation with 8,500 employees working for the News Department alone. It is also the most viewed media outlet in the world with 239 million unique viewers displayed in 32 different languages.
On an operational level, BBC obtains most of its funding through a TV license fee in the United Kingdom. This is made possible by a Royal Charter, which works very efficiently and is not affiliated with the government or advertisers, thus granting it the intellectual freedom need to be truly independent and successful.
BBC’s core mission statement is, “To enrich people’s lives with programs that inform, educate and entertain”, and the News Department is no different.
BBC News articles are primarily concise and objective, that strive to deliver hard factual information instead of personal biased opinions seen in the majority of American news outlets today.
To complement its news, BBC News articles generally take it one step further and provide extra material related to further educating the audience in matters of vocabulary, external circumstances or events surrounding a story, and information deemed as important to better understand the story’s relevance and matter in a global context.
This is also what BBC News does better than many other news sites. It is globally focused, with an emphasis on high quality sources gained from their strategic manipulation of huge funds obtained from the other divisions of the BBC media corporation.
BBC News is one of the best news sources on the internet. It delivers truly accurate news that is factual, informative, and timely in fashion. It is also globally driven in focus and content, and uses its wide range of material to cater to the public’s interest without compromising its values, basing itself on entertainment, or wasting its time and resources on “fluff pieces” to garner attention on useless matters that are not even close to being news.
The Ron and Don Show with Mr. Allen and Mr. Edwards is live Wednesday, December 11 at 8:30 p.m. (CST) to on #BlogTalkRadio. Click here to listen or visit their show page.
Read the NAACP bylaws for units. (PDF)
Read the NAACP Election Guide. (PDF)
By Kindle Jenson, Point Peak News
Minneapolis, Minn…Yes, it is true – Donald Allen can be down right abrasive at times. He can spread information on the Internet like nobodies business. One thing for sure, there is not a soul in the black community of Minneapolis that possesses the passion, hope, professional business process and a keen sense of knowing what has happened to black people in Minneapolis.
“Its my time,” Allen said. He continues: “The NAACP in Minneapolis has needed a reset for over 20-years. No NAACP office has been open in Minneapolis since Sabathani in 2008. Still the door in the front hallway remained lock. Also, the Minneapolis branch of the NAACP has not had a meeting for almost a year. I get calls from the east coast telling me I’m not eligible to run – well than, if I am not eligible to run, what makes them think they are eligible to rule?”
In an exclusive interview, the civil rights blogger, educator and social media consultant believes the election rule book as been circumvented, contaminated and set up; which means the Minneapolis branch of the NAACP might be up for grabs or dissolution. “When I post a story or make a comment on Facebook, some of this half baked people start to attack me personally. Not one time have they spoken to the issues,” said Allen in discussing a local nonprofit director who if one does not agree with him, they are on medication.
There still remain some serious missteps by local NAACP representatives – whomever they might be.
Per NAACP branch bylaws, the membership must get at least 10 days notice of the first two of a total of three meetings, each held about one month apart in order to organize an election. The first membership meeting elects a nominations committee. The second membership meeting elects an elections supervisory committee and closes nominations. The election is held at the third membership meeting. Of course, this has never happened.
The Minneapolis branch of the NAACP does not have an advisory committee; a candidate’s consent for should have three to five advisory committee signatures for a candidate running for office in the local branch. With Minneapolis not being functional since Mr. Booker Hodges stepped down – per NAACP election rules, Note: Mr. Hodges is still the president until a new president has been elected. This information was dispatched today from the national headquarters in Baltimore, Md.
According to the NAACP headquarters website, the mission of the National Association for the Advancement of Colored People is to ensure the political, educational, social, and economic equality of rights of all persons and to eliminate race-based discrimination.
NAACP president Ben Jealous, who Allen says has done less for black America than Obama, will be stepping down in March. The agency could be under some serious financial challenges. We expect to see Jealous on speaking tours, cable television news and a temporary placeholder for black America in the same vein as Andrew Young.
The Vision Statement for the organization says, “The vision of the National Association for the Advancement of Colored People is to ensure a society in which all individuals have equal rights without discrimination based on race.”
Both constitution and bylaws become problematic when talking about the NAACP in light of recent challenges the organization. On July 3, 2013 – a lawsuit was filed by the Tulsa Branch of the NAACP against the national office over an election; In January, Houston’s Four Seasons Hotel is sued the NAACP, claiming the association owes the hotel almost $100,000, apparently for a summer banquet. The lawsuit claims that the NAACP owes the Four Seasons $99,597 for various unpaid charges from July to November for an event held at the downtown hotel, according to a petition filed in Harris County District Court on Jan. 16, 2013.
Needless to say, the national NAACP has seen better days – like in the 1950s. Making Allen a part of this organization might be the “spin” they need to become sustainable.
After speaking to many people in Minneapolis about Allen’s candidacy, his reception will be lukewarm – but a necessary change in a local black flagship organization that has lived in weightiness and darkness.
IBNN NEWS BRIEF
Saint Paul, Minn. – For over 100 years, members of the Association of Minnesota Counties’ (AMC) have gathered at the AMC Annual Conference each December. For the first time in 100 years, an African American woman will lead the organization as president.
At the Strength in Unity event presented by the Association of Minnesota Counties, the announcement will be made that Willtha (Toni) Carter has been named president of the association. On Monday night the inauguration for Ms. Carter to President of Association of Minnesota Counties was filled with all the pomp and circumstance of crowning royalty, rightly so.
At this event where more than 600 county elected officials, department heads, and staff from across the Minnesota come together to learn more about and discuss the important topics and trends affecting county government.
Minnesota’s 87 counties have always explored finding better ways to deliver services, perform more efficiently, and improve overall service to their constituents. Change is ever-present in modern life and there are certainly a variety of challenges and uncertainties ahead for all counties. That’s exactly why there is great strength and value in counties remaining united.
By continuing to learn, share ideas and work together, counties are well positioned to make positive strides forward for all counties and citizens.
Congratulations Willtha (Toni) Carter from everyone at the Freedom News Network, Black Focus and IBNN NEWS.
The Minneapolis branch of the NAACP with and estimates $30,000 in their bank account must make some important decisions on December 13 at the special branch election to be held at New Salem Baptist Church in Minneapolis.
The video below is a recording from the Ron and Don Show on BlogTalkRadio with NAACP representative William Jordan. There are many inconsistencies with the local process we could not get ironed out in this telephone call.
By Reverend Gerald Hanks, Contributing Columnist – IBNN NEWS
In breaking news exclusively from IBNN sources tell us that long-time civil rights leader; longest seated chairman of the Minneapolis Urban League board and former president of the Minneapolis branch of the NAACP, Mr. Ronald A. Edwards has been reinstated back into the local fledgling organization.
The reinstatement comes more than a decade after Mr. Edwards was expelled from the Minneapolis of the NAACP for whistle blowing on the disappearance of more than $600,000.00, which today is still unaccounted for.
In October 2003 the NAACP’s national office effectively took over the Minneapolis branch and cited the infighting. Questions in need of answering from two pastors were swept under the rug along with missing and unaccounted funds. Is this a sign the NAACP wants to build a stronger Minneapolis branch with Edwards?
On December 13, the Minneapolis branch of the NAACP will be holding a “special election” that has outraged many community members who feel they were not notified in a timely manner. Mr. Edwards protégé, Don Allen – a member in good standing of the Minneapolis Branch of the NAACP will be submitting his impressive credentials to run as the Second Vice President or a member of the executive committee.
“It would be a great thing if Mr. Edwards was president of the NAACP in Minneapolis. Under his leadership the Minneapolis branch of the NAACP will be able to fill the gap of representation for colored people,” Allen said. Katie Jackson, having breakfast at the Lowry Café in north Minneapolis is contemplating joining the Minneapolis branch of the NAACP and said, “I’m very concerned, why is there no information about who is no the executive committee in case I wanted to run for an office,” Jackson said.
The Minneapolis branch of the NAACP former president Booker Hodges, who stepped down earlier this year, under the color of NAACP law should be considered the president until another president is elected. Since there is not active executive committee list, candidates for the offices of president, first vice president, second vice president, secretary, assistant secretary, treasure and assistant treasure – along with the 24 executive committee positions are all up for grabs. There has been a Facebook group launched for members and persons interested in becoming a part of the Minneapolis branch of the NAACP (click here to join).
Tune in Wednesday, December 4 at 8:30 p.m. to The Ron and Don Show-On Point to find out why this satire is the only thing from keeping us from crying. To listen to the program on Wednesday night – click here.
by Minnesota Average White-Guy, Guest Contributor – IBNN NEWS
Minneapolis, Minn. – Good times have finally arrived in Minneapolis.
The Minneapolis Department of Civil Rights has went above and beyond the call of duty to sanction the Minnesota State Legislature to stand-down and encumber the Minnesota Department of Human Rights minority hiring goal of 32%.
Lines of African American men and women surrounded the Metrodome in downtown Minneapolis in a line that went on for more than four blocks to turn in applications that were delivered personally to African American households by members of the Minnesota Sports Facility Authority executive staff.
Tyrone Littermate, one of the thousands who stood in line on Monday said, “This is a dream come true. I thought I would have to train for two-years at a local OIC that uses your whole pell grant. By the stadium dudes hiring this way, I can prove that I am able to work.”
This major hiring of black men and women has caused major confusion in the European community of Minneapolis. John Snelling, owner of the Beef Eater told us today in an exclusive interview, “That’s great, them Negroes can work and become productive member of society.” Snelling inquired on the first payday for the new hires so he could lower the price of chicken wings and Hennessy. “I’ll get them whole checks spent right here. They’ll still go home with nothing,” said Snelling.
In a strange turn of events, we stumbled upon Summit Academy OIC president Louis King waiting on the number five bus, mumbling, “The best social service program is a job,” repeatedly. King was rushed to the veteran’s hospital observation ward and his status is known as “protected.” Minneapolis Urban League President resigned today citing that he was headed back to Madison to open a chain of Louisiana Fried Chicken outlets that would not compete with his lone Subway sandwich shop.
In a statement from outgoing Minneapolis mayor R.T. Rybak, he told local black community leaders at this mornings press conference, “I told you I could help black people get jobs in Minneapolis. It had to wait until my last month in office so my overseers would not be upset.”
Rybak’s phone rings, he fumbles to answer it, “Hello, hello? Barry, do you have a job for me?”
Needless to say, this is the moment the African American community has been waiting for – like slaves building the white house in Washington, DC, we can repeat history right here for the People’s Stadium.